As a former gubernatorial press secretary, the author of Almost DailyBrett was always concerned when reporters, editors, correspondents and pundits had too much time on their hands, and were bored.

That’s when the media pack starts to form. That’s when the “theories” are born. That’s when vacuums are filled. That is not always a good thing.

And that is precisely what is happening right now in the dog days of the 2015-2016 presidential cycle.

Welcome to the Silly Season.

LAS VEGAS, NV - APRIL 28:  Chairman and President of the Trump Organization Donald Trump yells 'you're fired' after speaking to several GOP women's group at the Treasure Island Hotel & Casino April 28, 2011 in Las Vegas, Nevada.  Trump has been testing the waters with stops across the nation in recent weeks and has created media waves by questioning whether President Barack Obama was born in the United States.  (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images)

LAS VEGAS, NV – APRIL 28: Chairman and President of the Trump Organization Donald Trump yells ‘you’re fired’ after speaking to several GOP women’s group at the Treasure Island Hotel & Casino April 28, 2011 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Trump has been testing the waters with stops across the nation in recent weeks and has created media waves by questioning whether President Barack Obama was born in the United States. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images)

The real action at this point of time, 16 months before the November 8, 2016 general election pertains to fundraising and organization.

This week, we learned that Jeb and related PACs raised $114 million in the first six months of this year. Hillary’s fundraising machine brought in $69 million. Marco Rubio secured $32 million.

As former California speaker of the House Jesse Unruh once said: “Money is the Mother’s Milk of Politics.”

Alas, the easily distracted ADD political media does not want to suckle on that nipple for too long. Fundraising and organizing are akin to watching paint dry and grass grow.

Instead, the Punditocracy and even mainline reporters are hyperventilating on Donald “The Comb Over” Trump on the right and Senator Bernie Sanders on the left, even though their individual chances of winning their respective party nominations are less than zip.berniesanders

There are 97.8 million Google searches related to demagogic Trump and his daily insults against undocumented aliens from Mexico, and another 46.3 million on Sanders, who swoons to the tune of a 90 percent highest federal income tax rate and even a death tax surcharge.

Can either capture the popular vote and the more than 270 electoral votes needed to be the 45th president of the United States? Well, no. However, they both provide ample fodder for political science fiction.

Political Science Fiction?

For as long as the Almost DailyBrett author can remember there were at least two major political fantasies that crop up every four years: 1. The prospect of a brokered convention and 2.The general election being thrown into the (Republican controlled) House of Representatives.

The last real examples of brokered conventions go back to the 1924 Democratic National Convention at Madison Square Garden, which lasted from June 24 to July 9, and took 103 ballots to nominate John W. Davis. There was also the curious decision by Adlai Stevenson to leave the vice presidential nomination to the 1956 Democratic National Convention with no advance warning.

Davis went down to defeat to Calvin Coolidge, and Stevenson lost for the second time in succession to Dwight D. Eisenhower.

For sure, the Republican convention in 1976 (Ford vs. Reagan) and the Democratic convention in 1980 (Carter vs. Kennedy) were donnybrooks, and in both cases the presidential incumbents lost reelection. Nonetheless, they were not “brokered” conventions even though there was plenty of smoke in the backrooms.carterkennedy

Does anyone in the Punditocracy really believe that the presence of The Donald and/or Bernie will result in a “brokered” convention on either side of the aisle? Conventions have become über-scripted, mostly dull coronations with very little suspense … and the parties like it that way.

The next question concerns whether Trump and his reported $4 billion in personal assets will refuse to accept defeat next winter/spring and mount a third-party challenge, thus hurting the GOP nominee?

Or how about “independent” Bernie Sanders also rejecting the inevitable and mounting a socialist campaign on the far left and denying Hillary the 270 electoral votes she needs to be the first woman president of the United States?

Or … (as long as we are engaged in political science fiction) what if both run simultaneous third-party campaigns with Bernie capturing a state or two (e.g., Vermont), and Donald taking a state or two (e.g., Idaho) and not enough electoral votes remaining for either the Democratic or Republican standard-bearer?

And while we are at it, let’s factor into the equation the “Big One” earthquake/tsunami as portrayed in San Andreas with California, Oregon and Washington slipping into the Pacific, taking 74 blue electoral votes into the abyss.sanandreas

It seems far too many reporters/commentators are getting their collective bowels in an uproar about the latest of years of incendiary remarks from Trump, and growing crowds for Sanders (George McGovern and Walter Mondale drew large crowds in 1972 and 1984 respectively and won a grand total of two states between them).

They all should know better. In the end, it comes down to electability, fundraising, organizations and campaigns. Yes, campaigns matter.

The Donald and Bernie will not be accepting either party nomination in the summer of 2016. There will be no “brokered” conventions. The election will not be thrown into the House of Representatives.

Get over it.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/jeb-bushs-campaign-raised-11-4-million-in-two-weeks-1436466491?mg=id-wsj

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/09/politics/bush-fundraising-second-quarter/

http://rove.com/articles/594

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/10/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-party-debate.html?_r=0

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/12/upshot/class-or-ideology-my-conversation-with-bernie-sanders.html?abt=0002&abg=1

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1924_Democratic_National_Convention

http://www.historytoday.com/richard-cavendish/adlai-stevenson%E2%80%99s-second-run

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trumps-appealand-its-limits-1436479851

 

 

 

 

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