“I know every one of these 50 fellows. There isn’t one them that has enough sense to pound sand down a rat hole.” — President Harry S. Truman upon learning that 50 political writers polled by Newsweek had all predicted that New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey would win the 1948 presidential election.
“I think the press has been pretending to much more wisdom (or is it smartness?) than it had any right to claim, and has been getting away with murder for some time. The plain fact now appears to be that (as far as politics is concerned, at least) the press hasn’t known what time of day it is for years.” — T.S. Matthews, Time magazine managing editor, 1948
Almost DailyBrett remembers his boss California Governor George Deukmejian’s Two Laws of Politics: Never take anything for granted (e.g., Dewey), Run as if you are running behind (e.g., Truman).
Do you suspect the Duke learned these rules as a young aide from Albany sending messages to the Dewey campaign train?
Reading historian David McCullough’s 1993 Pulitzer Prize for Autobiography, a 992-page door-stop “Truman,” one his struck how the New York/Washington Punditocracy was so very wrong — even worse than Donald Trump’s upset of Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Your author has asked before and will pose the same question again: ‘Why do we listen to these people?’ They largely never leave Mid-Town Manhattan or the Friendly Confines of the Beltway. Their worlds are very small only talking to each other. That was the truth in 1948, again in 2016 and most likely in 2024 and beyond.
The Little Bridegroom On The Wedding Cake
The trend away from the hard work of reporting facts on the ground as they play out day-in, day-out to providing the great unwashed with personal interpretations has been poisoning the profession of Journalism for almost 75 years and counting.
‘Why cover a campaign, that’s over when I can personally tell the public what it all means (in my informed opinion).’ That was the case in 1948, when the conventional wisdom was that New York Governor Thomas Dewey was going to be sworn in as the 34th President of the United States.
This was the same Dewey, who lamely talked about “unity” (where have we heard that before?). Dewey was the little man with the moustache — he was sensitive about his height — who looks “like the bridegroom on the wedding cake.”
As the wife of a New York Republican politician once said: “You have to know Dewey well in order to dislike him.”
In direct contrast, ‘Give ‘Em Hell’ Harry’ took the fight to Dewey and the “Do Nothing” 80th Congress from the back of his Ferdinand Magellan campaign train on its Whistle-Stop tour of America. The former farmer from Missouri understood the heartland. He triggered a massive shift in sentiment, particularly with the farm vote, while the media and pollsters were a sleep at the switch.
The polling industry stopped tracking the campaign two weeks before election day. Harry Truman kept on giving Hell to Dewey and the Republicans. The GOP thought the election was in the bag. Truman was drawing crowds, big crowds. You can’t draw definitive conclusions from audience sizes, but you can’t discount them either.
And with the reliance, make that overreliance on polling comes a potential negative to Democracy as explained by Truman assistant press secretary Eben Ayers: “There has been a danger, it has seemed to me, that the polls would reach a point, if they continued to be right, where they easily could easily control the outcome of an election.”
The good news is the pundits can be and have been wrong. The pollsters take snap-shots of sentiments, but no more. The American people, particularly the working stiffs in the Fly-Over States, have proven in the last two centuries to be mercurial. They need be understood. Their voices need to be heard (qualitative research) and measured every day — rolling tracking — until election day (quantitative research).
Almost DailyBrett believes that reporters, anchors, editors and correspondents need to get off their lazy behinds, and get out to heartland to actually listen, instead of pontificating and bloviating their sacred opinions about the historical failures of America.
Sorry very few care about 1619. We need to be focused on 2022 and 2024. We don’t want to go back to Donald Trump, but forward. Winning political campaigns are directed toward the future — (e.g., The New Deal, New Frontiers, Morning in America) — not the past.
In Donald McCullough’s Truman, we learned the president in effect was the challenger even though he was the incumbent. He took his case directly to the American people. He pointed to his accomplishments and the record of his predecessor President Franklin Delano Roosevelt — New Deal, Marshall Plan, Berlin Airlift, Ending World War II — and projected more of the same for the future.
Thomas E. Dewey talked about, “Unity.”